9.18.2009

analysis: demise of us shield may embolden russia hawks

MOSCOW, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Washington hopes that by backing away from an anti-missile system in east Europe, it will get Russian cooperation on everything from nuclear weapons cuts to efforts to curb Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions.

But will Moscow keep its side of the bargain?

The U.S. move on the shield -- due to be announced later on Thursday but already flagged by Czech and Polish officials -- removes at a stroke the biggest outstanding obstacle to bilateral relations between the former superpowers and will be hailed by the Kremlin as a big victory.

...

Diplomats here say Moscow hardliners could read the shield backdown as a sign of Washington's weakness. Far from doing the bidding of the United States, they may instead press for further gains to shore up Russian power in the former Soviet bloc.

Ukraine, Georgia and other Kremlin foes in the ex-Soviet Union may be the first to feel the consequences.

...

Obama went out of his way to praise Medvedev during his visit, spending a total of eight hours with him against only two for Vladimir Putin. He criticised Putin before his visit as a man with one foot stuck in the past, contrasting him unfavourably with Medvedev.

The missile shield move marks another attempt by Obama to shore up what Washington sees as a more liberal, pro-Western strand in the Russian government personified by Medvedev.

But with hardliners increasingly in the ascendant in Moscow, and Putin openly talking about returning to the top Kremlin job at the next election, it is far from clear whether Russia's next international moves will be the ones Obama intended.

read more @ kyiv post


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