Published in full. Food for thought. Is it all Peak Oil? Is it speculation? I dunno peeps. All I can say for sure is we are living in a psyops world, 24/7, and the truth is mixed in with a lot of lies and disinformation and misunderstanding. The only thing that seems certain is we'll find out who's really in control in the near future. Go here for the original LATOC post. - Ed.
Probably the most frequent question I get is "how much time is left?" My reply for the past four plus years has always been "I don't know, a few days, a few months, a few years, maybe longer, maybe not. I wish I knew." Well, Ken Deffeyes just published an analysis at his blog that gives us some type of rough idea. His conclusions appears to be that oil at $300 a barrel will produce, more or less, a total economic shutdown:
So while it is still impossible to answer the question of "How much time is left", we might be able to use the price of oil and gas as some rough indicators of where we're at. We're hovering around $125/barrel and $4/gallon right now and already seeing significant slowdowns. Shutdowns likely begin around $200/barrel and $8/gallon. At $300/barrel and $12/gallon everything stops.How big is the problem? Multiplying production (barrels per year) times the oil price (dollars per barrel) gives a total cost in dollars per year. It's an enormous number; tens of trillions of dollars per year. To put a scale on it, the three thin curves on the graph show the oil cost in contrast to the total world domestic product; the annual value the goods and services added up for all the world's countries. The three curves show the oil cost at one percent, two and a half percent, and five percent of the total world economic output. At $130 this morning, we are at six and a half percent.Oil production obviously cannot consume 100 percent of the world's income. My intuitive, uninformed guess is that it cannot go above 15 percent. If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy. Source
Of course, the pace could slow down just as easily as it could accelerate.
FWIW, I don't think you need to worry about the police state or the KBR camps much past $200/barrel and $8/gallon. At those prices, the economic machinery that simultaneously feeds hundreds of millions and imprisons tens of millions begins to shutdown. At that point, a cessation of food and fuel shipments is, in my opinion, much more likely than are mass round ups and imprisonment. Unlike World War II Germany, we don't have much of a train system in this country and what we do have is pretty decrepit. Furthermore, the lion's share of the energy used to extract the coal to run the trains and the camps comes from oil-derived fuels. Most of that oil is imported from thousands of miles away. (Even the domestically produced stuff is typically imported from hundreds of miles.) The production, import, and refining infrastructure to do all of this is dependent on extremely complex and highly globalized networks of finance and telecommunications that are unlikely to exist in sufficient capacities for very long once oil settles in above $200-$250/barrel.
Today's update is going to be relatively short as Ken's calculations have probably given people more than enough to contemplate. I am going to repost yesterday's Editor's Note as Ken's the implications of Ken's calculations seem to support my suspicion that we're quickly running out of time to use the net to meet-up with others in our area.
Best,
Matt
