what to expect next as the Ukraine flu spreads

1. Ukraine reports 12 flu deaths in 24 hours

The death toll from the flu epidemic in Ukraine has reached 328, with 12 deaths registered over the past 24 hours, the health ministry said on Wednesday. The number of officially confirmed H1N1 strain swine flu deaths in Ukraine has reached 15, with 166 people infected. Last week, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) chief, Raisa Bohatyryova, said there were "constitutional prerequisites" for a state of emergency amid the flu epidemic, which has left a total of 1,457,564 people infected as of November 18. A state of emergency, if it is declared, could delay the presidential polls scheduled on January 17, 2010 until May. Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said she saw no need for such measures.

read more @ ria novosti


2. recombinomics commentary - small changes in the sequencing are enough to cause big problems

RBD D225G in China and Australia Raise Ukraine Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
November 18, 2009

The recent outbreak in Ukraine has raised concern that receptor binding domain changes are responsible. Although WHO has issued a new Ukraine situation update and has addressed preliminary changes in a news conference, they have not rule out receptor binding domain changes, and the recent announcement of investigations by two WHO Regional Centers (NIMR in Mill Hill, UK and CDC in Atlanta GA) suggests single nucleotide changes are under investigation.


read more @ recombinomics



3. Ukraine pathologist answers questions

Professor Victor Bachinsky, PhD., is a coroner in the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine. He provides evidence which indicates that parainfluenza mixed with the H1N1 virus, not pneumonic plague, has caused so much illness in Ukraine. Yet more strains of influenza which have combined, a strong indication that we are dealing with a laboratory developed bio-weapon. [Translated from Russian]

read more @ people's voice


4. even though the officials can barely handle releasing any coherent and timely data or answer any valid questions without confusing the issue more, they are predicting the second and third waves of the virus.


Ukraine's Deputy Chief Sanitary Doctor Liudmyla Mukharska has forecast that a second wave of the A/H1N1 flu in the country could come in December 2009 or January 2010, while a third one could be seen in next autumn.

read more @ kviv post


5. extrapolations of what can happen in other countries based on the Ukraine experience

According to reports on the progression of regions affected, there are now approximately 1.5 million cases of people infected in the Ukraine with 328 dead from a still-to-be-characterized virus. What would happen in other countries if a virus with a similar transmission rate were to infect their population?

The progression of the outbreak was as follows:

On November 2nd, 255,516 were infected On November 4th, 478,456 were infected On November 5th, 633,877 were infected On November 7th, 871,037 were infected On November 8th, 969,247 were infected On November 9th, 1,031,597 were infected On November 17th, 1,457,564 were infected

In other words, there was a 470% increase in infections in just 15 days. The population of Ukraine is just over 46 million. That means 3% of the population was infected in slightly over two weeks.

Fatality rate is the ratio of deaths within a designated population of people with a particular condition, over a certain period of time. The rate for the 1918 Spanish flu was >2.5%, about 0.1% for the Asian and Hong Kong flus, and <0.1%> Zaïre Ebola Virus is among the deadliest viruses with a case fatality rate of roughly 90%. Fatality rate from swine flu in the U.S. is far less than any type of flu including seasonal influenza.

The fatality rate of the Ukraine pneumonic virus has been calculated by some experts to be somewhere between 0.5% and 0.7%. According to the WHO, the Ukraine virus is causing a fatality rate of .02% which seems to be either a gross miscalculation or intentional deception.

Excluding factors such as age structure, population density, and other specific variables that may change transmission rates, here's a breakdown of what could happen to other countries if the same virus hits with a similar infection rate:

Country	Potential Infected After 15 days (3%)	Potential Dead After 15 days (0.6%)
Australia	661,770	3,970
Canada	1,015,410	6,092
China	40,025,700	240,154
Croatia	133,051	798
India	35,181,600	211,089
Mexico	3,226,520	19,359
Norway	145,371	872
Netherlands	497,229	2,983
United Kingdom	1,849,037	11,094
United States	9,238,740	55,432

more information @ prevent disease


6. Lord Stirling has information on the location of Joseph Moshe - unconfirmed

BREAKING NEWS: Joseph Moshe, the dual national (Israeli-American) Mossad biowar expert, who was attacked and seized by Federal Agents and LAPD in mid-August in California, after speaking to Dr. True Ott on his national radio show and warning of a plot by Baxter International to spread a Plague from Baxter's Ukrainian lab, IS BEING HELD IN THE PATTON STATE MENTAL HOSPITAL IN CALIFORNIA.

read more @ europe